It’s like the old line attributed to Mark Twain: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Ask a CFO what parallels they see between the uncertainty of 2025 and the staggering economic collapse of 2007–8, and you’ll get some variant of that famous Twainism.

In the worst way, we’re so back. 60% of CFOs expect a recession by the end of 2025, according to a Q1 CNBC CFO Council survey, while Goldman Sachs recently upped the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%.

And yet, everything’s different. To truly understand the potential dangers of our current moment, you have to look back. For starters: 2008 didn’t jump off like this. It began with a bang.

Here’s CFO Brew’s oral history of the 2008 crash, as told by finance and accounting professionals. Click here to see the rest of CFO Brew’s Quarter Century Project.

Interviews have been edited and condensed for length and clarity.

Hard and fast

Ari Shwayder, lecturer of business economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, who worked at McKinsey before and after the 2008 crash: When things crashed, it was one of those classic [scenarios] when all of a sudden it happened all at once. It felt like everything was fine; there was very little uncertainty. And then, all of a sudden, the banking system blew apart over the course of a couple of months.

Click here to keep reading our CFO oral history of the 2008 crash.—NP

Buyers went on a shopping spree in March ahead of President Donald Trump’s promised new tariffs.

Retail sales last month increased 1.4% over February and 4.6% from March 2024, according to Commerce Department data. March marked the biggest monthly increase since January 2023 and also outpaced the Dow Jones estimate of a 1.2% increase, according to CNBC.

Vehicles and parts dealers shifted into high gear in March, as sales in that category revved up 5.3% from February and 8.8% from a year ago. Car manufacturers offered discounts ahead of anticipated tariffs on the auto sector, NPR reported. But now, President Donald Trump said he may pause his 25% tariff on imported vehicles to give automakers some breathing room, according to the AP.

Compared to February, spending increased 3.3% at building materials and gardening supplies stores; 2.4% on sporting goods, musical instruments, and books; 0.8% on electronics and appliances; 0.4% on clothing and accessories; and 0.2% on food and beverages. Spending was down 0.7% on furniture for the month.

Click here to keep reading.—AZ

Pay transparency laws have prompted more employers to show their workers the money. But what happens when employees know exactly how they stack up against their peers?

New research suggests knowing what your colleagues earn isn’t motivating for all employees. Armed with salary information, high-performing employees will be more likely to push for a significant raise over their lower-performing colleagues, according to a study led by University of California, Riverside associate professor of management Boris Maciejovsky.

The findings. Maciejovsky and his colleagues ran four experiments in which participants were given information not only about compensation, but also their performance rank within an organization. It’s not uncommon for employers in some industries—investment banking, for example—to share employees’ rank relative to others, Maciejovsky said. But sharing this kind of information has implications for motivation and productivity, he noted.

Disclosing not only pay but also rank, it turns out, can influence how aggressive workers are in negotiating salaries. Participants were more likely to ask for significantly higher raises if they knew they had a top performance ranking, the study found.

Keep reading HR Brew’s story on the impacts of pay transparency here.—CV