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It’s frankly a lot
To:Brew Readers
CFO Brew // Morning Brew // Update
When assessing risk, finance leaders have much to process.

Hello—it’s Monday. If you hear “taco theory” bandied about in meetings today, it’s probably not about lunch. We really wish it were. Why can’t it be Taco Tuesday today?

In this issue:

Worrywarts

Sew-sew earnings

Industrial impact

Alex Zank, Natasha Piñon, Jesse Klein

RISK MANAGEMENT

People walking into Riskworld 2025 conference in Chicago. (Credit: RIMS)

RIMS

Risk-minded finance leaders should know by now that risks are getting more complicated and effective management strategies require a mindset shift.

Here’s what experts at May’s Riskworld conference said about the risks they and their clients are closely monitoring.

Geopolitics and tariffs. Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical instability were common refrains from folks throughout the conference. But Shailesh Kumar, head of The Hartford’s Global Insights Center, considered them one and the same. The tariffs were a response to the Trump administration’s perception of unfair trade practices, he said.

“I think most times people think about tariffs as an economic issue or an American political issue,” Kumar said while atop a stage in the bustling and expansive Riskworld exhibit hall. “But there is a geopolitical component to this.”

Oh, you don’t say? Please, do go on.AZ

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EARNINGS

A stack of clothing with a slip of paper that says "Returns."

Francis Scialabba

Remember malls? Those glorious, overly air-conditioned monuments to consumption where you’d fill the idle hours of youth?

Well, some of the stores you’d walk past while trading stories about algebra class drama reported earnings this week—but the results are distinctly 2025.

Everyone’s a little worried about the apparel industry right now. Retail experts expected tariffs to hit the clothing industry especially hard due to its heavy reliance on imported goods. A forecast from the Yale University Budget Lab in April estimated that consumers will face 64% higher apparel prices in the short term, with prices staying 27% higher long term.

Meanwhile, the president of the United States Fashion Industry Association offered a blunt take on the trade war with China: “Ultimately no one wins.”

And now, we’re getting more insight into what winning looks like for the apparel industry. The main takeaway: “Winning” is all relative.

There was one apparent apparel winner…NP

TARIFFS

Construction site with signs blocking materials reading tariffs.

Ismagilov/Getty Images

How’s this for an Onion-style headline: Tariff experts were exactly right about tariffs.

According to a survey of 500 manufacturing, construction, transportation, warehouse, and other industrial professionals, less than 10% of US companies have brought any manufacturing or other production back to US soil because of the tariffs.

The survey was conducted by PlantTours, a communication headset company used for tours by Disney, Johnson & Johnson, Unilever, Amazon, P&G, and many others.

On top of the lack of reshoring, 64% of the professionals surveyed said their companies made no significant supply chain changes, and only 21% said they moved to domestic suppliers.

Instead, the tariffs have caused them to increase prices, cut profit margins, and reduce their workforces.

How widespread are these price hikes across the sector? Read on.JK

Together With insightsoftware

MARKET FORCES

market forces chart

Francis Scialabba

Today’s top finance reads.

Stat: 20%. That’s how much Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei thinks unemployment could spike if AI replaces half of all white collar entry level jobs, as he believes it will. (Axios)

Quote: “For decades now, it has not been a level playing field for US automakers globally, with either tariffs or non-tariff trade barriers, so I think tariffs is one tool that the administration can use to level the playing field…Having strong manufacturing capability in this country is also important.”—Mary Barra, CEO of GM (WSJ)

Read: Why Gen Z and millennials job-hop so much. (Journal of Accountancy)

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