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Nosedive
To:Brew Readers
CFO Brew // Morning Brew // Update
AI’s very bad month.

Welcome back, Monday. JPMorgan’s new New York HQ will have a food hall that includes white-collar favorites like Sweetgreen, plus to-go options available 24/7, an Irish pub, and the unspoken pressure to spend every waking moment at work.

In this issue:

Disillusioned

Rough year

CF-no

Jesse Klein, Courtney Vien

TECHNOLOGY

AI disillusion increase

Illustration: Morning Brew Design, Photos: Adobe Stock, WikiCommons

On August 7, OpenAI’s latest LLM, GPT-5, came out, and landed with more of a whimper than a bang.

Its previous models, GPT-3 and GPT-4, each improved dramatically upon their predecessors, raising hopes that GPT-5 would prove a similar advance. Instead, GPT-5 seemed to be more of an incremental improvement. It still hallucinated, and it still failed basic reasoning tasks: The model that Sam Altman likened to having a “team of Ph.D.-level experts in your pocket” couldn’t tell you the number of b’s in “blueberry.”

The GPT-5 fizzle was the start of a rough month for generative AI’s reputation. In a New Yorker article, Cal Newport wondered whether the technology was ever going to get that much better. The New York Times reported on McKinsey research showing that ~80% of companies were seeing “no significant bottom-line impact” from GenAI, despite having spent billions on it. And a paper by MIT’s NANDA showed that 95% of companies’ pilots of enterprise AI tools fail.

All of that is hard to square with the bold claims GenAI proponents made early on: that the technology would be a “revolution” on par with the advent of the internet, that it was a step that would lead humanity to artificial general intelligence (and quickly!), and that it would eliminate a wide swath of white-collar jobs. Almost three years after the public release of ChatGPT 2, where is the technology really headed?

Is gen AI failing to live up to the hype?CV

Presented By FloQast

TALENT MANAGEMENT

Hiring declines

Takasuu/Getty Images

Tally another one up in the “2025 is a rough year for jobs” column.

Fewer CHROs plan to increase hiring than did so a year ago, a survey by the Conference Board finds, and more anticipate that their companies will pull back on hiring.

Twice a year, the Conference Board surveys US CHROs at organizations like Fortune 500 companies, healthcare employers, and midsized companies. This quarter, 36% of CHROs said they plan on increasing hiring within the next six months, roughly the same percentage as Q4 of 2024 (37%) but down from 41% in Q2 of 2024.

Similarly, 20% of CHROs said they would decrease hiring over the next six months, around the same percentage as Q4 of 2024 (19%), but up from 11% this time last year.

It’s yet another data point suggesting that the jobs picture is weakening. Though unemployment is low, at 4.2%, fewer jobs are being added. The US gained just 19,000 jobs in May, 14,000 in June, and 73,000 in July. Were it not for the healthcare and social services sectors, Bloomberg pointed out, that jobs growth would have been negative. It now takes job seekers an average of 24 weeks to land a role, a month longer than it did a year ago.

How much will hiring slow down?CV

CFOS

A portrait of Niki Heim, the CFO and chief administrative officer of LogicSource against a brown background.

Niki Heim

Coworking is a recurring segment where we talk to CFOs and other leaders in the finance space about their experiences, their companies, and the larger economy. Let us know if you are—or you know—a CFO we should interview.

Niki Heim is the CFO and chief administrative officer of LogicSource, a procurement and sourcing platform. Before taking on the CFO role, she had stints in banking and athletic gear. This is her first role as a CFO. In addition to the traditional CFO duties, she sees her role as “as a strategic integrator,” offering insight that creates value within the organization.

CFO Brew recently spoke to Heim about the future of finance, her advice for aspiring CFOs, and how the role can change in a time of uncertainty.

This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

What have you learned about being a CFO in a time of uncertainty?

I feel like it’s been a time of uncertainty since 2020 so I’ve learned to just never be comfortable and constantly be adapting and just be willing to make decisions on the fly. In the past, I would overthink where I wanted to go with a decision, but having confidence in my initial kind of gut feel and taking it from there right away is something that I've learned to get much more comfortable with.

Keep reading here.JK

Together With Convera

MARKET FORCES

market forces chart

Francis Scialabba

Today’s top finance reads.

Stat: $700 million. That’s how much Cracker Barrel is spending on a multiyear rebrand and new logo. (FWIW we would have told them to take the old man off the logo for a mere $350 million.) (Morning Brew)

Quote: “Given the historically low levels of attrition our business has faced the past few years, we are being prudent by decreasing our campus hiring goals in certain parts of our firm and leaving space for us to reevaluate our needs as necessary to meet the evolving demands of our business and our clients.”—PwC, in a statement to Business Insider, responding to reports that it would be reducing its hiring of college graduates over the next three years (Business Insider)

Read: Scammers are getting really good at creating fake websites indistinguishable from the originals. (the Wall Street Journal)

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