TARIFFS
Well, it happened.
President Donald Trump’s long-proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods took effect on Tuesday, rattling markets and potentially setting the stage for a global trade war. The US also added to its tariffs on China, slapping the country with an extra 10% tariff on imports, for a total of 20%.
Retaliation was swift. Canada said it would impose 25% tariffs right back. China plans to impose extra tariffs of 15% on US agricultural products like wheat and corn. The country is also suing the US with the World Trade Organization. Mexico said it would announce retaliatory measures against the US on Sunday, which will include both tariff and non-tariff actions.
Leaders and representatives of impacted countries were fierce in their criticism of Trump’s decision, with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying the US has now “chosen to launch a trade war that will first and foremost harm American families.”
After the tariffs went into effect on Tuesday, Andrew Wilson, deputy secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce, told the Wall Street Journal he feared a crash similar to the Great Depression.
“Our deep concern is that this could be the start of a downward spiral that puts us in 1930s trade-war territory,” he said. “Right now it’s a coin-flip. It comes down to whether the US administration is willing to rethink the utility of tariffs.”
For more on the new tariffs, click here.—NP
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COMPLIANCE
The Securities and Exchange Commission’s purge of pending lawsuits against crypto exchanges is showing no signs of stopping.
On Monday, Kraken said the SEC “agreed in principle” to dismiss its lawsuit against the crypto exchange, which is one of the largest in the world.
The move comes on the heels of last week’s news that the SEC would drop its investigations into Coinbase and Robinhood, two other major crypto exchanges with pending lawsuits.
It was widely expected that during Trump’s presidency, the SEC would take its foot off the pedal when it comes to crypto regulation. Already, the commission’s actions have marked a sharp reversal from the crypto crackdown seen during former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s tenure.
The SEC sued Kraken in November 2023, under Gensler. As in its cases against other exchanges, at the heart of the SEC’s lawsuit was the allegation that the company acted as an unregistered broker, dealer, and exchange.
In a blog post announcing the dropped lawsuit, Kraken said the dismissal marked “a turning point for the future of crypto in the US.”
Click here to keep reading about the dropped lawsuit.—NP
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EARNINGS
Cautious consumers made for muted Q4 2024 earnings, Target executives said during this week’s earnings call. And the first quarter of 2025 isn’t looking that great, either.
Target beat Wall Street expectations for its Q4 earnings and revenue, but in most other respects the numbers were a disappointment. Its net income of $1.1 billion for the quarter was down from $1.38 billion in Q4 2023. Its sales were also down 3% year over year. The retailer only anticipates sales growing 1% this year, below analyst estimates of 2.6%, and for annual same-store sales to remain flat.
Like peers Walmart and Best Buy, Target sees consumers holding back. Declining consumer confidence is dampening discretionary spending, CFO Jim Lee said. More than two-thirds of what Target sells is discretionary, according to Reuters. The company did not discuss the impact of ongoing backlash in the wake of its decision to withdraw from DEI commitments.
Tariff uncertainty leads to caution: “Meaningful year over year profit pressure” from tariffs could depress sales in Q1, Target said in its earnings report. Tariffs on Mexican imports could raise prices on groceries like bananas, avocados, and strawberries, CEO Brian Cornell said. “If there’s a 25% tariff, those prices will go up…certainly over the next week,” he told CNBC.
Click here for more on what Target’s earnings might mean for consumer spending.—CV
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MARKET FORCES
Today’s top finance reads.
Stat: 31%. This was the probability of an economic downturn based on financial market signals as of Tuesday, according to a JPMorgan model. It was just 17% in late November. (Bloomberg)
Quote: “Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month. Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”—Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, on a slowdown in hiring (Wall Street Journal)
Listen: An inside look at how the operators of the Panama Canal set the canal’s rates—which favor larger companies that can pay more, an expert argues. (Planet Money)
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JOBS
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