Businesses are feeling deeply rattled by the most recent round of tariffs and the stock market turmoil that followed. At a PwC webinar, Craig Stronberg, senior director of PwC Intelligence, said that we’re now in a period of “historic disruption.”

The “economic discussion” is “happening everywhere, at all levels, with a lot of angst,” Stronberg said. In 2024, he said, businesses were catching their breath, feeling like they’d left the pandemic era behind them. This year, they’re facing “unlimited uncertainty.”

The uncertainty, PwC US public policy leader Roz Brooks said, is “deliberate” on the part of the Trump administration, as they’re looking to use tariffs as a negotiating tool.

Where to look for direction: Though it’s difficult to know what might be on the horizon, there are some places to look for clues. One is the White House. Businesses and the stock market were “surprised” by the tariffs and the resulting turmoil, Stronberg said, partly due to “recency bias” and the fact that Trump didn’t always do what he said he would during his first term. Now “he is sticking to the script,” Stronberg said, “and if you want to know what’s coming, listen more closely to him.”

For more on dealing with uncertainty, click here.—CV

How low can you go?

Consumer sentiment is down once again—dropping 8% from March and a staggering 32% from January, according to the latest University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment.

But this time economic anxieties crept into personal finances. Raise your hand if you think you’re going to get a raise this year. Yeah, we don’t either. With tariff expenses and a recession looming, survey respondents weren’t expecting income growth. Less than half expected an increase in their wages this year.

“Consumers perceive risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming on the horizon,” director of the survey and economist Joanne Hsu said in a statement. “Most concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipate weaker income growth in the year ahead. Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain robust amid the numerous warning signs noted by consumers.”

Click here for more on the steep decline in consumer confidence.—JK

It doesn’t matter if you sell soda, HPV vaccines, or international flights: If you hawk anything, you’ve been talking nonstop about tariffs. While a chunk of Q1 earnings reports are still to come, more than 90% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have mentioned the word “tariffs,” according to a Reuters analysis.

Several companies either slashed or completely pulled their forecasts for the year last week, adding to a growing group of companies that have blamed tariffs for leaving them uncertain about the future:

• PepsiCo lowered its full-year profit outlook, saying its earnings per share are expected to remain even with last year’s, following an earlier estimate that they could rise by nearly 5%.
• Pharma giant Merck also said it’s lowering its 2025 guidance due to an expected $200 million in added costs this year, partly from the tariffs.
• Even Chipotle lowered the top end of its sales growth forecast for this year, because Chipotle Honey Chicken can only do so much in times of economic uncertainty.

Keep reading Morning Brew’s story on what companies are saying about tariffs here.—MM