It’s looking like a slow cooldown.
The number of available jobs last month dipped below 9 million for the first time since March 2021, according to data released Tuesday by the Labor Department. In July, there were 8.8 million unfilled job openings, seasonally adjusted, down 338,000 from June.
That’s a fresh sign that the job market is steadily cooling—but it’ll take some time before job openings dip to perilous levels. There are still 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person. By comparison, there were 1.2 openings for every unemployed person in 2019, and that was a fairly solid year for jobs.
The Labor Department’s latest data tucks neatly into the economic narrative of the last few years. In March 2022, job openings hit a 12 million peak, marking the highes numbert on record. That was after two years of pandemic-related job turmoil, and notable worker shortages.
Throughout 2023, however, job openings have fallen, particularly as interest rates rise. And the latest "Help Wanted" figures are likely a welcome sign for the Federal Reserve, as they suggest inflation might be reined in without a steep surge in unemployment. Wages can rise when supply and demand for workers misaligns, and that can spur inflation. A looser labor market, however, could provide ammunition for the Fed’s inflation battle.
“This is where we wanted to go; we’ve got job openings heading downward, but in a calm, cool and collected manner,” Rachel Sederberg, senior economist for Lightcast, a labor market research firm, told CNN.
Calm, cool, and collected—those are the signs of a chill slowdown. With any luck, the weather will do the same thing soon.
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