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CFOs looking for quick, cheap energy could be in for a long, and expensive, wait. A new study from the journal Energy Research & Social Science and the Boston University Institute for Global Sustainability, as well as universities in Denmark and the UK, looked at 83 countries and found that historically, more than 60% of energy projects ran over budget between 1936 and 2024. The average energy project blew past its expected costs by 40% and was delayed by nearly two years. The study found that this trend is global, including for newer tech like hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear.
The study examined 662 energy infrastructure projects, from coal plants and geothermal power to bioenergy and hydroelectric dams. The budget for all the projects was $812 billion, but the actual costs skyrocketed to $1.358 trillion. Nuclear power plants were the largest contributor to that increase: The average project costs $1.6 billion more than expected, or 102.5% over budget.
On the other hand, solar energy is the overachiever of the clean energy group project—usually finishing construction early or under budget, according to the report.
Most surprisingly, as projects got bigger than 1,561 megawatts in capacity, instead of benefiting from economies of scale, they were more likely to run over cost. (The study didn’t specify how much more over). These diseconomies of scale suggest that smaller, modular renewable energy projects can be deployed more easily and carry less financial risk.