CFOs (along with everyone else) are navigating a world raging with extreme uncertainty. The Conference Board might stoke the flames of anxiety a bit more with its newest set of economic indicators.
“The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in a news release.
The group’s measurement of current economic conditions inched up 0.1% in May, but its index predicting where the economy is headed in the near term slid by the same percentage. In fact, its near-term predictor has dropped 2.7% over the last six months ending in May, a “much faster” clip than the 1.4% drop from the previous six-month period, according to the release.
Zabinska-La Monica noted that stock prices recovered after falling off a cliff in April. But that positive development was ultimately drowned out by “consumers’ pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits.”
Oh, great heavens. The US economy just got a bit of good news, too. Earlier this month, the University of Michigan revealed that consumer sentiment ticked upward for the first time in six months. On the other hand, retail sales dropped for a second straight month in May, according to the Commerce Department.
It’d be no surprise if finance leaders found all these macro indicators a bit dizzying. Who knows what kind of uncertainty tomorrow will bring?
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