Electricity prices will soar due to Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ according to report

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) will have lasting impacts on electricity investment and prices for the next decade, according to a new report from nonpartisan think tank Energy Innovation. And, surprise, surprise, it’ll make your utility bills go up.

The legislation passed by the Senate will likely boost oil and gas production by expanding drilling on public land and slashing costs by reducing the federal government’s share of revenue from fossil fuels extracted on public land. But even more and cheaper production won’t be enough to keep energy bills from going up, especially because renewable energy is usually cheaper than fossil fuels these days.

“There’s less incentive for developers to invest in these [renewable energy] projects,” Daniel O’Brien, senior analyst at Energy Innovation, told CFO Brew. “With less new low-cost production capacity coming onto the grid, power prices become more expensive for consumers…for industries and businesses alike.”

Give us a break. According to Energy Innovation’s findings, repealing Biden-era energy tax credits, along with delaying funding for agriculture and forestry projects, will increase household energy costs by $170 a year on average over the next decade.

Wholesale electricity prices will increase by 25% in the next five years and 74% in the next decade, according to Energy Innovation’s research. And in terms of higher energy costs and job cuts, the top five biggest losers of the bill are all Trump voting states: South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

According to O’Brien, the Energy Innovation model uses government data, and sometimes academic or NGO sources, to predict “what the energy system would look like with current policies in place” analyzing power capacity needs through different economic conditions. What they found is that “the cheapest and fastest way to meet electricity needs is through wind and solar.” However, the new bill provides fewer resources and investments for those types of renewable energy sources.

For example, during the Biden years, Oklahoma benefited from an investment in windmills on its plains that provided residents with cheap, green electricity. Without the tax break, continued investment is likely to stall and prices will likely increase, according to CNBC. And O’Brien predicted that less efficient gas plants, known as peaker plants that are only meant to run at peak hours, will increase operations, pushing up costs and pollution.

The strict sourcing rules in the OBBB that forbid clean energy credits from going to projects that source materials from China will also “significantly hamper the development of domestic electricity generation capacity,” according to the report. Most solar panel and wind turbine components are made in China.

Power hungry. The cuts to electricity supply come right as the US is in need of it most—for the AI boom. Data center energy needs are likely to more than double by 2035, according to Bloomberg. Restricting supply and making energy more expensive during this key moment will “damag[ing] US industrial competitiveness,” the report says.

But it’s not just electricity prices. Energy Innovation’s analysis shows that both GDP and job growth will also be collateral damage.

“Manufacturing is one of the biggest losers around the country,” O’Brien said. Without the tax credits, businesses lose the incentives for creating facilities to produce energy products like batteries and cells that go in wind turbines. And as demand for solar and wind drops, so does demand for the basic components and materials behind them, like steel and glass, causing a secondary economic downturn, he said.

The US could lose out on $980 billion in GDP as private investment stalls out, and 760,000 jobs will be lost by 2030 as factories shutter, according to Energy Innovations.

So next time your heating bill cracks triple digits, start calling your senators instead of your utility supplier.