Consumers’ hiring fears hit 12-year low

Americans are feeling anxious about their ability to find new jobs. (And really, can you blame them?)

Data from the New York Fed’s August Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that US consumers felt less confidence about their ability to find a job than at any point in the past 12 years. The survey, which polls around 1,300 heads of households on a monthly basis, found that respondents gave themselves only a 44.9% chance, on average, of landing a new job within three months should they lose one.

That’s the lowest percentage since the Consumer Expectations Survey started asking about job searches in June 2013. The drop, the New York Fed wrote in a press release, “was broad-based across age, education, and income groups,” but was largest among respondents with a high-school education or less.

Consumers also believed gas and food prices are on the rise this year. In December 2024, they predicted that gas prices would increase by 2% in the next 12 months. In both July and August of this year, they estimated gas prices would jump by 3.9%. Respondents estimated food price inflation of 4% in December 2024. For the past four months, they’ve forecast it at 5.5%.

Staying the course: Most of the other economic indicators the survey measured were little changed from last month. Consumers’ expectations of losing a job in the next 12 months stood at 14.5%, on average, slightly higher than the average of 14% the survey observed over the past 12 months. They estimated their chances of leaving their jobs voluntarily in the next 12 months at 18.9%, again about in line with what the survey’s been seeing over the past 12 months.

Respondents’ sentiments about overall inflation (3.2% over the next 12 months), household spending (5% over the next year) and household income growth (2.9%) stayed steady over the past month and were similar to survey findings over the past 12 months.