How CFOs can brace for a sluggish global economy

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So you’re saying sluggish growth may lie ahead? CFOs have a plan for that!

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund predicted global growth will slow from 3.3% last year to 3.2% this year and 3.1% in 2026. While the IMF still expects growth to decrease, the outlook improved from April when the group said to expect growth of only 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026. New trade deals lessened the sting of US tariffs, the IMF noted in its report, yet “the overall environment remains volatile.”

“CFOs have already priced this growth slowdown to some extent” because of the earlier prediction, Randeep Rathindran, distinguished VP in Gartner’s finance practice, told us. With macroeconomic factors in mind, many are still expecting growth but also plan to control expenses.

A recent Gartner survey of 142 CFOs found that more than two-thirds of respondents anticipated organic revenue growth in excess of 5% next year, according to Rathindran. But they’re also showing cost discipline. Nearly two in three planned for their selling, general and administrative (SG&A) budgets to increase more slowly than revenue growth. Thus, Gartner predicts that growth next year will be “headcount neutral,” he said.

Gartner recommends that CFOs plan for multiple economic scenarios next year, Rathindran said.

They should, for one, ponder what it would mean for business if tariffs cause a spike in inflation, he said. In fact, finance leaders said this is already happening. According to a recent survey from Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, CFOs estimated “tariffs are to blame for about one-third of their companies’ price growth this year,” CNN reported.

CFOs should also plan out a scenario where inflation is muted, but consumer sentiment remains tepid. Other variables, like continued investments in AI or added geopolitical instability, could further influence what’s in store next year, Rathindran added.

“I think the main story here is the continued focus on cost discipline,” he said, “despite some optimism around growth.”