The factors behind M&A’s big September comeback

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Dealmakers must’ve discovered White Monster last month, because the M&A activity was buzzing with energy.

According to EY’s latest Merger Monthly report, deal volume in September increased 41% YoY and deal value skyrocketed by nearly 110%. A few factors drove the dealmaking boom, including a surge in large deals, private equity-led activity, and a boost in executive optimism.

Mega deals made a mega impact: Indeed, these mega deals (which EY defines as $5 billion or more) increased 80% YoY in volume and 176.4% in value, according to the report. This mega mega-deal momentum came from “sectors like gaming, energy, telecom, and healthcare.” One such mega deal announced (but not closed) in September was private equity’s planned $55 billion acquisition of video game giant Electronic Arts.

Other drivers include companies acquiring “high-value assets” like technology platforms and liquefied natural gas infrastructure, and a more friendly dealmaking environment thanks to “expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and stabilizing capital markets,” according to EY.

PE is back, baby: PE firms fueled both M&A activity and IPOs in September. PE’s share of total US deal value on transactions over $100 million was nearly 60% for the month, up from roughly 45% in August, “marking a significant shift in market dynamics.” PE activity was driven by “record levels” of dry powder and favorable interest rates, according to the report.

The C-suite vibes are good: EY noted that “a significant backlog of transactions is poised to move forward as market conditions stabilize, with pent-up demand expected to drive an uptick in activity.” Nearly half (48%) of CEOs said they plan to pursue M&A deals in the next year, according to EY’s September CEO survey. CEOs most frequently said they’re pursuing M&A deals to acquire new technology or IP, enter new markets or revenue streams, and to significantly expand and drive efficiencies.

Other research suggests a mixed bag of optimism and concern. A recent survey from Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta found that CFOs are less anxious about both tariffs and uncertainty than a few months ago, but also revealed that, “on average, price growth would be about 30 percent lower in 2025…without the addition of tariffs.” A majority (62%) of business and finance leaders responding to another survey from finance talent outsourcing firm Personiv said macroeconomic shifts had “extremely significant impacts” on first-half planning.

Ready to pounce. Of course, M&A deals don’t happen on their own. Many factors, both internal and external, can make or break a deal. CFOs can facilitate successful dealmaking by preparing their teams well ahead of time and thinking through risk scenarios, according to experts who spoke with CFO Brew.

In an email, Malinda Gentry, EY-Parthenon Americas TMT and telecommunications leader, told us that despite the “wave of optimism” flowing through the US deal market, “unpredictability around recent tariff announcements and trade policy confront CFOs with new questions about supply chains, input costs, and valuation models.”

“Still, the dealmaking outlook is brightening,” Gentry continued, “and the winning CFOs aren’t waiting for stability—we’re advising them to be decisive, using volatility as a strategic advantage.”

As CFO Brew recently reported, experts said it’s imperative that deal teams are ready to go at the drop of a hat, since windows of opportunity may open and close quickly.

Organizations can adjust to volatility by starting on deals early, according to Mike Bellin, US IPO leader at PwC.

“Irrespective of your transaction—whether you’re doing an acquisition, divestiture, capital raise, IPO—starting early is the biggest piece of guidance I give to folks,” Bellin said at reporting software developer Workiva’s annual conference in September. “Whether you’re 12 months away, 18 months away, 24 months away, we say that a lot to our clients is to start early, because things take time.”

Finance leaders should prepare their organizations now for expected boosts to financing capacity and confidence that more Fed interest rate cuts will bring, so that they “can move quickly once conditions stabilize,” according to Gentry.

“CFOs and their teams should proactively plan for longer timelines, model scenarios of impacts to tariffs and talent costs, and structure agreements to share risks more effectively,” she said. “These help maintain certainty in deals and speed up the closing process.”