Why are CFOs so confident all of a sudden?

Maybe they all got haircuts. Maybe they’re all listening to the same power pop breakup anthem playlist. In any case: CFOs are suddenly feeling very confident.

CFO confidence climbed to a four-year high in Q4, according to Deloitte’s newly released CFO Signals report. The latest confidence score, 6.6 on a scale of 1–10, is “substantially higher than the Q3 reading of 5.7,” and not much lower than the record score, 7.2, from Q3 2021, placing it “squarely in high confidence territory,” according to the report’s authors.

And just like anyone who’s listened to the aforementioned power pop breakup anthem playlist and then gone on an ill-advised date: CFOs are also feeling risky.

Nearly six out of 10 CFOs think it’s a good time to take more risk, a steep climb from just 36% who said the same in Q3. The report covers survey responses from 200 CFOs at North American companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue, though you’d think it was a poll of extremely self-assured teenagers from the confidence results.

So, what gives? Short answer: At least some of the dust has settled.

“When you turn the clock back a year ago, [there was a] new administration taking over, [and] obviously, a lot of questions about trade policy, about capital market policy,” Steve Gallucci, global and US leader of Deloitte’s CFO Program, told CFO Brew. “As we close out 2025, while there still is a fair amount of uncertainty that’s out there in the world of CFOs, I think it’s fair to say that there’s probably less uncertainty than there was in the last couple of quarters.”

For all their confidence, though, CFOs are feeling decidedly less optimistic about key growth metrics. The survey measures a handful: revenues, earnings, dividends, capital allocation, domestic hiring, plus domestic wages and salaries. Forecasts for all of those metrics dipped this quarter.

“That speaks to the fact that there are some headwinds that are still out there,” Gallucci explained, highlighting consumer concerns. “There’s some concern, particularly if you’re a CFO of a company that is sensitive to where we’re seeing some of the headwinds in consumer spending.”

While the external picture is largely looking more rosy for CFOs, there are internal concerns to keep an eye on in 2026. CFOs ranked efficiency and productivity as some of the top internal concerns in the latest report, just under cost management. Efficiency and productivity? Could that be connected to AI ROI?

“Those internal risks around efficiency and whatnot, I do believe that the impact of AI is threaded through that,” Gallucci said.

An October Deloitte report found that while 63% of finance leaders “have already fully deployed and are actively using AI solutions in their finance function…only 21% believe those AI investments have already delivered clear, measurable value.”

“When you hear CFOs say, ‘efficiency, effectiveness, et cetera,’ I think that’s an element of them looking at [and] focusing their efforts on: ‘How do I transform my finance organization? How do I look toward building a finance organization that is taking much more advantage of agentic AI?’” Gallucci added.

Given the current ROI situation for AI investments, there’s probably a reason to be less confident in that department. But hey, there’s always next quarter.