Tariff strategy 2026: Less ‘temporary headwind,’ more ‘fixture’?

The government is making billions off tariffs. PwC estimated the Treasury pulled in $89 billion as of September and $108 billion by the end of October. And that month, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan nonprofit, reported that “the federal government raised $195 billion in customs duties in Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, more than 250% of what it collected in FY 2024.”

“This is obviously a lot of sugar for the folks in the customs and the government,” Chris Desmond, principal in the customs and international trade group at PwC, told CFO Brew. “People don’t like to give up that sugar.”

So the critical CFO concern over tariffs and mitigation strategies from 2025 will continue to be an obstacle in 2026 and beyond. Experts advise CFOs to start planning long-term for tariffs.

“Tariffs are no longer a temporary headwind but a fixture of the economic landscape, and 2026 strategies reflect that reality,” Ryan Steck, CFO of Ignite Spot, an accounting and bookkeeping company, wrote in an email to CFO Brew.

Dealing with 2025. The first thing CFOs will have to do in 2026 is deal with the leftover tariff issues from 2025: excess inventory and price changes (or the lack thereof). Some companies like Apple, Kraft Heinz, and Amazon started stockpiling imports as soon as the tariffs were announced to stave off price hikes.

Randeep Rathindran, distinguished VP of research at Gartner, said CFOs may have to offer discounts on this excess inventory, bundle tariffed products with others with higher margins, negotiate returns with suppliers, or adjust the value of the inventory to reflect its true market value for a tax advantage.

But Black Friday shopping and Cyber Monday went gangbusters; the NRF reported consumer spending was up 7% YoY, so companies might not need to jump through those hoops for now.

Absorbing might be over. In 2025, companies tried a few different tactics to avoid tariffs. Some, like Lakeland Fire + Safety, tried to nearshore to get around them. But most companies can’t pick up manufacturing plants and move them.

“What we aren’t doing is moving all of our manufacturing to the US,” Todd Patriacca, CFO of BVI Medical—which has seven manufacturing facilities around the world, including in China, Europe, and the US—wrote in an email. “This would require an enormous capital investment, be disruptive to our customers and employees, cause inefficiencies in our new product development, and potentially have no long-term benefit to BVI and its stakeholders.”

So others, like General Motors, Chipotle, and BMW, tried to absorb the costs. According to Goldman Sachs, through August, companies absorbed 51% of new tariffs and passed along 37% to consumers. But those numbers, experts warned, might flip in 2026.

“I do feel like when the dust settles for 2025, pencils will be sharpened,” Desmond said. “And that may mean that pricing may change further, which consumers will feel a bigger impact in 2026.”

Rathindran believes that just how sharp those pencils get will hinge on consumer sentiment, which has been stuck in the gutter. He advises companies to be careful with price increases, but if confidence rebounds in 2026, he expects prices to follow.

The Supreme Court case. The Supreme Court is currently weighing a challenge to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, and could issue a decision as soon as Friday. Trump levied tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and the current case in front of SCOTUS argues that the IEEPA does not give the president the right to do so. A decision against the administration could trigger refunds for importers. Costco filed its own lawsuit in December to ensure it gets paid out if the court decides the tariffs were unlawful, joining companies like Revlon and Kawasaki Motors.

The decision, which could come by the end of the year, will be “messy,” according to Desmond. He advised CFOs to start making a game plan, and his main suggestion was to use caution when getting into litigation right now. If the court does rule that companies are due refunds, filing a protest will put a company at “the back of the line,” he said.

“When you deal with millions and tens of millions of dollars of refunds…it is like a lottery ticket,” he said. “You don’t want to put that lottery ticket in jeopardy.”