US Chamber chief economist has some growth predictions for 2026

If CFOs weren’t expert scenario planners before, they sure are now, after a year best described as uncertain (or volatile, if you prefer more dramatic adjectives).

So, let’s kick off 2026 with a few macroeconomic scenarios to consider: US GDP should grow by about 2% this year, according to Curtis Dubay, chief economist at the US Chamber of Commerce. But numerous factors could either push GDP growth higher by about a percentage point, or could slow growth by the same percentage—and both scenarios are “equally as likely” at this point.

The 2% prediction is rooted in continued healthy consumer spending (despite their pessimism) and businesses’ investments in AI, Dubay said on Wednesday during a webinar hosted by Travelers Institute, the public-policy arm of the insurance company. (Dubay also summarized his thoughts in a recent post on the US Chamber’s website.)

For 3% growth, “AI has to continue to boom” through continued investment but more importantly for boosting productivity, Dubay said. Higher-than-expected growth could also come from benefits from last year’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill, continued deregulation, and if the Trump administration eases its restrictions on immigration and walks back some tariffs.

On the other hand, growth could decelerate if individual states create a “patchwork” of AI regulations that consequently hinder investment, if the Trump administration enacts more tariffs, and/or if consumer spending slows.

Now, something to put your minds at ease: Barring a significant shock like the Covid pandemic in 2020 or the financial crisis nearly two decades ago, the economy won’t go into recession, Dubay predicted.

“The economy will continue to grow without something like that occurring,” he said. “That doesn’t mean we couldn’t have slower growth…and we probably will have that this year.”

Dubay also does not expect an AI bubble burst resembling the dot-com bubble. He said that market players should have learned their lesson from that period, extending from the late 1990s and early 2000s, that they need to better match expectations of promising new technology with its current capacity to generate revenue.

“We know more now,” Dubay said. “We know that there has to be a business use case for AI to justify all the investment. I think that this lines up. So I’m not really worried about a bubble bursting.”

Not everyone is so sure. Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, told CFO Brew in November that “greed” and “FOMO” were driving AI investment hype. “There’s no serious thinking here of what the business is going to look like, what the revenues and profits are,” he said.