AI isn’t coming for your job—at least, not any time soon.
That’s according to a new study by the Yale Budget Lab (YBL), which found that the labor market hasn’t been disrupted by generative AI. YBL researchers examined occupational mix, or the percentage of workers who lost, gained, or changed jobs. They compared the rate of change in occupational mix since November 2022, when LLMs first became big news, with two other periods of technological upheaval: the advent of computers, and the internet. They found that GenAI has only had a 1% greater effect on occupational mix than the first few years of internet adoption.
“The potential effects of AI on the labor market so far are not out of the ordinary,” the researchers wrote, noting that technological disruption usually takes place on a timeline of decades, not months or years.
Some sectors have seen bigger changes in occupational mix than others since GenAI got big, the researchers observed—particularly information, financial activities, and professional and business services. However, they note that occupational mix changes in these sectors began before GenAI became popular, and that “the large shifts in the information industry” in particular “seem to be a feature of the industry itself.”
Occupational mix has also stayed steady across industries regardless of whether they have high, medium, or low exposure to AI, or whether they have high or low AI usage, the researchers found.
They did see some changes in occupational mix for entry-level workers (aged 20–24) over the past few months compared with the 25–34 age group. GenAI may indeed be affecting new grads’ job prospects, they wrote, but a slowdown in hiring might also be to blame.
While the researchers think GenAI has the potential to become a “transformative, general purpose technolog[y],” so far, its effects on the labor market are “largely speculative.”
In other words, even if LLMs do wind up being the “next internet,” take a deep breath. You’ve got time to adapt.
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