US-Iran war: assessing your exposure

US-Israeli strikes in Iran have claimed the lives of civilians, political leaders, and military personnel, while also introducing risks for organizations globally.

The CFO has a key role in navigating associated business risks, one expert told CFO Brew.

During heightened geopolitical volatility, finance leaders need to become the “chief risk officer” (if they don’t have one already, that is) of their organization, according to Jennifer Elder, a thought leader with the AICPA’s Business Learning Institute. Specifically, they need to ask “what must happen for us to do what we do,” Elder said, “and then go backward from there” to identify risks that would prevent them from conducting business.

The war with Iran puts regional supply chain concerns back in the spotlight. Shipping companies have begun rerouting voyages to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported. The key trade route connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, and about one-fifth of the global oil supply passes through there, according to the Associated Press.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz fits within one of Iran’s military objectives to “create the conditions that will make it difficult” for the US and its allies “to sustain the war,” Nick Redman, director of analysis at Oxford Analytica, said Wednesday during the Dow Jones Risk Journal Summit in New York. Redman pointed out that, in addition to attempting to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has also targeted oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

“The idea is to create international market turbulence and pressure that actually will force those that the President [Donald Trump] listens to, to argue for restraint and for bringing the conflict to a halt,” Redman said. “High oil prices are something that Iran probably cannot benefit from right now, but those high oil prices and disrupted supply chains are levers for Tehran to hasten the end of US and Israeli combat operations and to limit the damage that results to the Islamic Republic.”

Elder said CFOs need to look beyond their organizations’ immediate suppliers to get a full sense of their exposure to supply chain risks. A 2025 Sentrisk analysis of 80 major corporations showed that nearly all (95%) of the cohort had at least one supplier in the Middle East, CFO Brew reported last July.

But wait, there’s more: The Iran conflict carries other risks beyond the supply chain. Elder also noted that amid heightened volatility, “businesses get risk averse, so contracts will be slower to sign.” Organizations may hold off on purchasing decisions that they planned to make in March until later in the year, she said.

Elder said it’s important that CFOs think through risk scenarios with other company leaders and key employees, so that they’re not caught surprised.

“People don’t like to think about disasters happening, but the people who respond the quickest are the ones that turn a disaster into an opportunity,” she said.