Prediction markets may be getting a rule book

Here’s a new prediction market bet for you: What will be the first trending bet on Nasdaq’s prediction market platform?

The future of event prediction markets took a step forward last week, with two major developments signaling that both Washington and Wall Street are eyeing entry into the new betting market phenomenon.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission submitted an advanced notice of rulemaking to the president’s Office of Management and Budget on Monday for regulating prediction markets. This is the first formal step toward establishing a regulatory framework for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket that have soared in popularity since 2024.

The move comes a little over two months into the CFTC chair Michael Selig’s tenure, suggesting the agency is making good on fighting for prediction markets against what he calls state government encroachment. In late 2025 and early 2026, Nevada and Massachusetts filed lawsuits against Polymarket and Kalshi. Nine other states have also issued cease-and-desist letters.

The platforms have come under scrutiny, with some saying they encourage insider trading, violate gambling laws, and even raise ethical issues. Polymarket has faced criticism in the days following the US-Israel attacks on Iran, with Polymarket hosting bets on whether the Iran regime will fall before June 30 and one on “nuclear Armageddon” that was taken down. And in February, there was disapproval over a Polymarket betting pool on potential arrests in the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping.

But none of that seems to be keeping Nasdaq away. The stock exchange filed a proposal with the SEC last week seeking approval to launch its own prediction market. It wants to list binary options on the Nasdaq 100 index and the Nasdaq 100 micro index. The Nasdaq 100 tracks the 100 largest Nasdaq-listed nonfinancial companies. The micro 100 is based on 1/100th of the value of the Nasdaq 100.

Bettors could place trades between one cent and $1 on yes-or-no outcomes such as where the Nasdaq 100 will close that day.