GM raises its 2026 forecast

It’s a tale as old as time: North Americans love a full-sized pickup truck. And while fuel prices remain high, General Motors boosted its 2026 outlook last week to a range of $14 billion to $16 billion in pre-tax operating earnings.

But CFO Paul Jacobson isn’t ignoring the impact of fuel prices on his business.

“I want to make sure that we’re really clear. I don’t think we are projecting lower commodity prices for the second half than the first half…the reason for the guidance raise is, if we believe that it’s plateaued here, we can bank what we’ve sort of earned ahead of expectations in the first half of the year,” he told investors Tuesday.

GM’s fleet sales had their best first half in more than five years, Jacobson said, including record sales of full-size pickups and the automaker’s “highest government sales since 2009.” CEO Mary Barra added that the US Army, after initially ordering 1,200 infantry squad vehicles (see photo above) from GM, plans to order another 10,000 vehicles.

The strength of the North American market “provides the foundation for everything else we are building,” Jacobson said. “Margins have returned to our 8% to 10% target range, and we are winning in the segments that matter most, including full-size trucks and SUVs, while maintaining disciplined pricing and inventory levels.”

With the national market for EVs at the mercy of recent regulatory shifts, GM continues to downsize its EV business.

GM has accrued EV-related charges amounting to nearly $11 billion since the second half of last year, and expects full-year tariff impacts of up to $3.5 billion. But Jacobson assured investors that the worst of both is behind them.

“I’m proud to say that we believe these actions substantially complete the material cash charges we expect to incur as we align our EV capacity and manufacturing footprint with the changes in regulatory policy. While circumstances may change in the future and we may have some true-ups, it’s important to get this work behind us,” Jacobson said.