Goldman projects $600 billion in equity offerings next year

CFOs considering issuing equity in the next two months or in 2027 should know they could be competing against a record volume of deals.

This year, US companies are on track to collect $675 billion through equity offerings, beating the record set in 2021 when equity issuance totaled $540 billion, according to an October 9 report from Goldman Sachs.

And Goldman has big expectations for 2027. US corporate equity issuance will likely hit $600 billion next year, including $175 billion in IPOs and $425 billion in “other primary supply” like follow-ons, convertible securities, and SPACs, according to the report.

Companies often raise money by creating and selling new shares through initial public and follow-on offerings. So far in 2026, US entities have collected $431 billion, a 98% increase from 2025.

AI has been a big chunk of follow-on activity. AI-related follow-ons have hit $65 billion so far this year, 45% of US equity follow-on volume, according to Goldman.

In the third quarter, US equity issuance actually slowed. Companies raised $93 billion of equity in Q3, including $45 billion in follow-ons and just $7 billion in IPOs. The $93 billion represented a 20% year over year increase but a big drop from the second quarter’s record of $252 billion, Goldman said. The monthly average number of deals fell to about 50 in Q3, compared with more than 90 that came to market in both May and June.

Goldman said that following the record Q2, “macro volatility has weighed on activity in recent months.” In September, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. And Goldman pointed out that “10-year US Treasury yields have risen…more than 50 basis points since late August.”

“Sharp rises in interest rates have historically been associated with declining issuance volumes, and this pattern has been repeated recently,” Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist at Goldman, along with four other analysts, wrote in the report.

What’s going to drive the totals for 2027? Goldman cited “solid economic growth, rising equity prices,” and “ongoing AI investment.” But the report also anticipated “a decline in interest rates.” At least as of October 9, Goldman’s rate strategists predicted that 10-year yields would dip from early October’s 5.2% to 4.4% by the end of 2027.

The supply of equities will also get a boost from recent and upcoming IPOs, according to Goldman, which will result in about “$1.7 trillion of unlocked shares” that will become tradable. SpaceX, for example, staggered its lockup period, allowing long-tenured shareholders to sell their stock on a time-based release schedule. Hundreds of millions of SpaceX shares could become available in 2027.

Between new issuances and expiring lockups, a surge in shares hitting the public markets next year could pressure valuations in 2027, but is unlikely to “derail the bull market,” the Goldman analysts wrote. “Strong demand from households and foreign investors totaled more than $1 trillion in H1 2026, and our outlook for continued economic and earnings growth alongside declining interest rates should support continued investor demand for equities in 2027.”