CFO Brew helps finance pros navigate their roles with insights into risk management, compliance, and strategy through our newsletter, virtual events, and digital guides.

CFO Brew

Kristen Talman

cfobrew.com

Fourth quarter of 2023 could be steady

 North American and Western European markets show signs of hopefulness amid a challenging financial and job market. 

Economic indicators point to steady trends for Q4

Drew Adamek

Disruptions for 2023: Place your bets

Now taking bets on a few scenarios that aren’t out of the question.

After years of unpredictable disruptions CFO Brew tries to get ahead of the curve for 2023

The dot-com bubble burst two decades ago

Tech companies are facing headwinds not seen since the early 2000s when the dot-com bubble burst. 

Finance chiefs see parallels between the dot-com bust and the current techlash 

Hundred dollar bills with stock exchange board

Economy

Jesse Klein

July’s Consumer Price Index showed that inflation accelerated slightly less than analysts expected, allowing betting markets to believe the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September.

The CPI increased 0.2% from June and 2.7% compared to last year. Dow Jones analysts estimated it would come in at 0.2 and 2.8%, respectively, 

. However, Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, showed more volatility. It grew 0.3% compared to June and 3.1% year over year.

This marks the largest monthly Core CPI gain since January and the highest annual level since February. Costs for services drove most of the increase, while goods inflation stayed tame, suggesting tariffs haven’t been a key factor in driving prices so far, the 

 reported. Household goods prices increased 0.7% after a 1% jump in June, up 2.4% YoY. But apparel prices, which could have been hit hard by tariffs, only grew 0.1%. In another tariff-sensitive market, new car prices remained flat while used car prices increased 0.5%.

 earlier in the year to avoid passing on tariff costs to consumers for as long as possible, but this month’s data shows that strategy’s time might be running out.

The CPI report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics arrived after President Trump 

, Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, in early August after a 

 and nominated E.J. Antoni from the Heritage foundation, a conservative think tank, to replace her.

And of course, just like many of Trump’s other nominees, Antoni has previously 

CPI grew slightly, but core CPI increased at the fastest rate in five months

Household goods and used car prices increased, while food prices remained steady.

Natasha Piñon

Pencils down, kids. If earnings reports are the pop quizzes of the business world, then last week was more like a midterm you meant to spend all semester preparing for, only to ultimately cram all your studying into a matter of days.

To give a sense of just how much new information came in, economists have called it everything from “a 

Good timing. We needed a better look at the state of the US economy, because a weird thing has been happening: While economists and other experts braced themselves for a sharp slowdown as a result of President Trump’s tariffs, that hasn’t exactly panned out. Instead, the state of the economy remained 

, simultaneously looking more resilient than expected (though that resilience was overstated—more on that below), while also showing signs of cracks.

“We’re going to look back and either say, ‘Wow, the economy was super resilient and these things didn’t matter as much as we thought they would,’ or we’re going to say, ‘Yeah, you could kind of feel it was weakening,’” Louise Sheiner, an economist at the Brookings Institution, told the New York Times. “I think we just don’t know.”

Now, the picture is getting clearer—and it might have economists longing for the halcyon days of approximately one week ago.

GDP beat expectations, though there’s a catch: 

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 3% for the three months ending in June. That was better than economists anticipated, but the true usefulness of that figure was limited by abnormal trade patterns as a result of President Trump’s tariffs.

In anticipation of Trump’s second term, many companies stocked up on foreign goods and materials to get ahead of proposed tariffs. As a result, imports surged at the start of the year, and large swings in imports can muddle GDP data, which shouldn’t actually count imports at all, per the NYT.

“Measures of underlying activity, which remove the volatile trade and inventory components, show that growth slowed sharply in the first quarter, then weakened further in the second,” the Times reported. Economists anticipate GDP data will be revised in future months, so that’s a wait-and-see situation for now.

 to not lower interest rates, the other fresh data point to come in was consumer confidence, which 

 in July to a reading of 97.2, according to the Conference Board. That was an improvement from a precipitous drop in April, but remained “below last year’s heady levels,” according to Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, which conducts the survey.

Guichard noted that US consumers’ outlook on current job availability weakened for the seventh month in a row, dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. In July, 18.9% of consumers said jobs were hard to get, compared with 14.5% in January.

That was something of a hint for Friday’s jobs report, which the Federal Reserve might have wanted to see before it decided to 

 for the fifth time in a row. The central bank made the decision even as two Trump-appointed board officials voted against the majority in favor of a rate cut, marking the first disagreement of its kind 

Before the Fed made its decision, Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at forecasting firm Oxford Economics, told the New York Times that the Fed might finally cut rates once it sees “a couple of job reports that aren’t overly encouraging,” noting that the central bank’s “North Star is still the unemployment rate.”

Well, that star is dimming. On Friday, the Labor Department said job growth in the US 

, with employers adding a seasonally adjusted 73,000 jobs, lower than the 100,000 jobs economists polled by the 

Worse yet: Revisions to May and June’s jobs reports “were larger than normal,” the Labor Department said. And they meant it: In May, new jobs were revised down 87% from 144,000 to 19,000, and in June the US economy only added 14,000 jobs, down 90% from the 147,000 the BLS initially reported. The Labor Department explained that “monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.”

In July, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, bringing the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or longer to 1.83 million, up from 1.65 million in June.

While economists caution against reading too much into a single week, there’s now plenty of fuel for 

 that the economy is starting to show cracks. Back to the midterm analogy: If last week was a test, your teacher would’ve handed it back face down.

A sports fan looking dejected seen in silouhette. 

The ‘Super Bowl for economic data’ is officially over

The last week of July ushered in a spate of economic data that paints a clearer picture of Trump’s tariff economy. 

Alex Zank

Accountants across the globe are feeling better than they did a few months ago, but their confidence “is still at a low level by historical standards,” the latest 

Sentiment among 420 global respondents ticked up 10 points in the Q2 confidence index from the Q1 survey, which had the lowest score since Q2 2020. Still, accountants’ confidence was down from Q2 2024.

Confidence grew in Q2 among accountants in North America, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, while in South Asia and the Asia Pacific region, their confidence declined. North American confidence rebounded after a significant drop in Q1 due to tariffs and cuts to government spending.

Geopolitical instability, inflation, and regulatory and compliance risks made up respondents’ top three risk priorities in Q2.

 The survey showed diverging concerns over cost increases. Globally, the proportion of respondents who reported cost increases fell from Q1, reaching its lowest point since Q4 2021, but still above the survey’s historical median.

However, more than 60% of respondents in both North America and Europe reported increasing costs, higher than the median for both regions.

“There is a significant risk that firms will try to pass on their higher costs to consumers over coming months,” according to the survey. “Rising inflation would complicate the task of the Federal Reserve, if slowing growth and an easing jobs market begins to increase the need for a loosening in monetary policy.”

Accounting pros’ sentiment rebounds from start of 2025, but concerns remain

ACCA and IMA report “significant risk” of companies passing higher costs onto consumers in their latest survey.

Consumer prices were on the move in June, climbing 0.3% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. That brings the 12-month inflation rate to 2.7%, keeping it above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

“Core” inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. The reading comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs increasingly leave a bigger mark on the US economy—though how much of a mark they left on inflation depends on who you ask.

 a tariff impact, fell 0.3% from May, with used car and truck prices falling 0.7%. But other categories expected to be hurt by tariffs rose. 

 climbed 0.4% month over month, while household furnishings jumped 1%.

“Tariffs are starting to bite,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, 

. “It wasn’t as bad as expected, but you can see it in the data.”

Others, however, stress that we’re still waiting for the “aha” moment.

“It’s really hard to point to this report or any details in the report and say, ‘Aha! See what’s happened to prices because of tariffs,’” Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America, 

. “You get these pretty massive tariff increases. It’s bound to pass through to the consumers, and I still think it will, but it’s not in this report so far.”

Balloons deflating with stacks of money tied to the bottom of the strings

Inflation picks up in June

The reading comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs increasingly leave a bigger mark on the US economy. 

Economic sentiment among finance leaders dropped considerably in Q2 compared to the previous quarter, according to Deloitte’s latest CFO Signals survey.

In Q1, CFOs had the highest economic optimism on Deloitte’s confidence scale in 13 quarters. But in the Q2 poll, worries ticked up and the score dropped to a “medium” outlook on business conditions.

The firm conducted the survey between June 4 and June 18, amid 

. All that news translated into a drop in “enthusiasm for the North American economy.” Only 23% of CFOs rated it as “good” or “very good.”

And the future didn’t look very bright to CFOs either. Only 11% of respondents thought business conditions in North America would be “much better in a year.” This was a big drop from Q4 2024, when 37% thought the economy would be better in 12 months.

CFOs’ pessimism extended to their own organizations. Growth expectations declined across every key operational metric: “revenues, earnings, dividends, capital allocation, domestic hiring, and domestic wages and salaries.” Revenue growth took the biggest hit, from a 6% projected increase in Q4 2024 to a measly 1% in Q2 2025. Capital expenditure growth also saw a significant drop, from 4% to 1%.

So maybe a medium confidence was…optimistic.

CFO confidence drops 

Less than a quarter of CFOs think the North America economy is currently good. Ouch.

Start revving those engines and planning late summer road trips because gas prices might drop in August.

 on Saturday that they will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels a day. The group—which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—will increase global production by about half a percent.

Analysts were expecting a slightly smaller increase for the back half of the summer and believe that the additional supply will likely surpass demand, lowering prices. They expect crude oil prices to fall from $68 per barrel last week down to the $50–$60 range later this year, the New York Times reported.

OPEC Plus wrote that “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals” contributed to the increase. Aside from a 

, the oil industry appears unfazed by the conflict between Israel and Iran. But some analysts see some ulterior motives.

According to the New York Times, the boost in production appears to be motivated by two factors outside of economic conditions—to please President Trump and to 

Oil prices expected to drop

OPEC Plus increases global oil production by half a percent.

Courtney Vien

Investors are feeling fairly cheery about the global economy’s prospects in the back half of 2025. CFOs? Not so much.

 by global CEO advisory firm Teneo. The company polled 132 public company CFOs and 200 institutional investors in May. More than three-quarters of investors (78%) said they thought the world economy would improve in the latter half of 2025. But only a little over half (53%) of US CFOs agreed. Outside the States, CFOs were even gloomier: Less than a third (29%) of non-US CFOs thought the global economy would pick up. (Though with all the 

, who’s to say which group will turn out to be correct?)

CFOs and investors also didn’t see eye-to-eye on why 

. A little over half (53%) of CFOs named market volatility as a barrier to M&A, compared with 38% of investors. Investors were far more likely to name tariffs as an M&A roadblock (41%) than CFOs (27%).

Both CFOs and investors did feel pretty positive that sources of operational funding would be available over the next six months. Firm majorities of both groups felt optimistic about access to debt markets and capital markets; that private equity would have a positive impact; and that debt would be affordable.

 looks a lot different depending on which side of the pond you’re on. Only 17% of UK CFOs foresaw positive outcomes from the deal, the Teneo survey found, versus nearly two-thirds (60%) of American CFOs.

artistic rendering of two heads facing in opposite directions