Gartner gives CFOs an action plan for this moment of tariff uncertainty

The Supreme Court threw a constitutional wrench in the Trump administration’s tariff plans. The February decision that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act marks the latest episode of uncertainty for corporations, as tariffs are far from settled.

Finance leaders should take advantage of the “narrow window” the ruling created to explore recouping tariff-related costs and rework their financial plans, according to a Gartner report.

The whiplash. The Trump administration moved within hours of the SCOTUS ruling to replace the IEEPA tariffs with a flat 10% levy on imports from all countries under the Trade Act of 1974, and President Trump said that he would raise global tariffs to 15% over the ensuing weekend. However, that mechanism comes with a 150-day cut off before it needs to be extended by congressional approval.

Fitch Ratings estimated that, with likely exemptions for passenger vehicles, pharmaceuticals, United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement goods, and some electronics, the effective US tariff rate would be around 11.5%. But there are countries, like the UK and Australia, that had negotiated lower tariff rates that are now back up to 15%.

The clock is ticking on refunds. By the time of the Supreme Court ruling, as much as $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs collected were eligible for refunds, estimated researchers at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model. But whether businesses will get that money back is still a bit of an unknown.

“There isn’t a universal framework [for refunds] that’s laid down,” Gartner’s distinguished VP Randeep Rathindran told CFO Brew.

Gartner suggests CFOs start working with their general counsel, customs brokers, and customs counsel to assess eligibility and file claims for refunds through US Customs and Border Protection (CPB) before the statute of limitations deadline. According to US federal law, importers have 180 days from when CBP finalizes the tariff owed on imported goods to challenge a charge.

FedEx already filed a lawsuit seeking refunds on Monday in the US Court of International Trade, which the Supreme Court said would have jurisdiction over the IEEPA tariffs. But Trump signaled his administration plans to dig its heels in, saying last Friday he “guess[es] it has to get litigated for the next two years.” This comment comes despite the Justice Department’s promising in court filings prior to the Feb. ruling that it would refund the levies if ordered to do so.

Rework financial plans. Gartner recommends CFOs reexamine financial scenarios they created under the IEEPA tariff policy and look at forecasts, pricing, and supplier contracts.

Rathindran believes there’s a need for planning now because even though there are new tariffs, “the tariff structure is a little bit different, and that could have a material impact” on your financials. “That’s why we’re saying replan, even though you know that there’s something else probably coming down the road,” he said.