The war in Iran is giving accountants economic jitters

The war in Iran—and its knock-on economic effects—has shaken CFOs’ confidence in the global economy.

That’s according to the Q1 2026 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and the Institute of Management Accountants. The survey, which has existed for more than 10 years, was fielded March 3–19 and polled 557 accountants worldwide, 50some of them CFOs.

CFOs’ confidence dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic and was “significantly below its historical average,” the authors of a report on the survey wrote. Accountants’ optimism dipped to its third-lowest level since the survey was first conducted. The only two quarters when accountants felt more pessimistic both occurred during the pandemic: Q1 and Q2 2020.

This quarter, accountants ranked geopolitical instability as the risk factor that concerned them the most—only the second time they’ve done so since the GECS introduced the factor in 2023. Last quarter, accountants ranked geopolitics behind economic factors such as inflation and interest rates, as well as technology and cybersecurity, in their list of risk priorities.

Before the war in Iran, the survey’s authors wrote, the global economy was fairly solid, due to “the current global AI boom, favourable global financial conditions, and fiscal easing in a number of major economies.” But the conflict presents “major downside risks for global growth,” they warn, especially if it continues long-term.

The pressure is on: CFOs reported that cost pressures eased slightly this quarter, but most accountants saw things differently. Nearly seven in 10 (69%) said they saw higher operating costs, close to the series high of 71% that occurred in Q3 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, and significantly higher than the series median of 48%.

Sentiment among accountants and finance professionals was down in several other areas. Almost three-quarters (74%) thought inflation would rise in their countries in the next three months, compared with only half (50%) last quarter. Around a third (35%) foresaw interest rates rising in their countries, more than double the percentage (16%) who thought rates would rise last quarter.

In other survey indicators of financial stress, “global problems accessing finance don’t appear to be a particular issue at present, while problems securing prompt payment are around their historical average,” the authors said.

Accountants’ fears that their customers and suppliers would go out of business also rose last quarter, and were historically high, though not as elevated as they were during the pandemic.